Working Papers
Joint with Matin Safshekan, GWU.
We develop measures of R&D-driven uncertainty at the firm and aggregate level - the "fog of innovation." R&D is associated with a rise in
firm-level uncertainty with a lifecycle of 3-4 years. While aggregate uncertainty behaves like a negative supply shock, R&D-driven uncertainty
measured using forecast errors behaves like a positive supply shock. Slides.
Joint with Matin Safshekan, GWU.
We study the impact of migration-driven labor supply shocks using the lens of the influx of millions of Afghans into Iran after the 2021 Fall
of Kabul. We find that young workers with low schooling in industries and provinces with the most migrant pressure experience lower wages
and weakened nutrition, whereas experienced formal sector workers experience higher wages with no nutritional impact.
Joint with Geyue Sun and Tomas Williams, GWU.
We develop new high frequency measures of capital controls with granularity regarding their intensity, direction, target and other dimensions of
heterogeneity using Artificial Intelligence. We also provide a new way to generate such measures using Artificial Intelligence that is significantly
less resource-intensive than alternative measures.
Joint with Naixin Zhang, GWU.
We develop measures of the political power of different industries based on the locations where they are based and the power of representatives
of those locations. We find that powerful industries are more likely to be the beneficiaries of industrial policy interventions.
Click here for an AI-generated presentation. Click here for a Highlighted 2026 AEA Highlighted Poster Video.
Joint with Matin Safshekan, GWU.
We develop measures of R&D-driven uncertainty at the firm and aggregate level - the "fog of innovation." R&D is associated with a rise in
firm-level uncertainty with a lifecycle of 3-4 years. While aggregate uncertainty behaves like a negative supply shock, R&D-driven uncertainty
measured using forecast errors behaves like a positive supply shock. Slides.
Joint with Matin Safshekan, GWU.
We study the impact of migration-driven labor supply shocks using the lens of the influx of millions of Afghans into Iran after the 2021 Fall
of Kabul. We find that young workers with low schooling in industries and provinces with the most migrant pressure experience lower wages
and weakened nutrition, whereas experienced formal sector workers experience higher wages with no nutritional impact.
Joint with Geyue Sun and Tomas Williams, GWU.
We develop new high frequency measures of capital controls with granularity regarding their intensity, direction, target and other dimensions of
heterogeneity using Artificial Intelligence. We also provide a new way to generate such measures using Artificial Intelligence that is significantly
less resource-intensive than alternative measures.
Joint with Naixin Zhang, GWU.
We develop measures of the political power of different industries based on the locations where they are based and the power of representatives
of those locations. We find that powerful industries are more likely to be the beneficiaries of industrial policy interventions.
Click here for an AI-generated presentation. Click here for a Highlighted 2026 AEA Highlighted Poster Video.
- Robots and the Shrinking Top: Inequality Within and Between Occupations
Joint with Rodimiro Rodrigo and Yun Zhang, GWU.
We show that automation is related to decreasing inequality within occupations, but increased inequality across occupations. We show this is associated with job destruction among the highest wages in exposed occupations, with leavers losing some of the rents from their occupations of expertise.
- Minimum Wage, Informality and Non-Compliance
Joint with Jinho Kim, Cardiff Business School.
We study the effect of the minimum wage in Indonesian household and firm level panel data. A higher minimum wage increases non-compliance, raises the wage distribution and brings people from the informal sector into the formal sector, while also rationing out marginal workers, consistent with an extension of the Burdett-Mortensen (1998) framework. We calibrate the model economy and find that the minimum wage has a negative overall impact on the size of the formal workforce.
Work in Progress
- Rule of Law and Firm Performance: Evidence from Vietnam
- Firm Credit and Loan Guarantees
- Uncertainty and Investment Specific Technical Change
